CMV: China will win a war against the US

EDIT: Should specify “over Taiwan or the South China Sea.” Many users correctly pointed out that China can’t defeat the US in every possible conflict.

I've been meaning to make this CMV for a while (and in fact almost made one before realizing it was Fresh Topic Friday). But I'm making this now after reading a scary article from professor Noah Smith: The Players on the Eve of Destruction. In short, war is back, and of future wars, a Sino-American one is the granddaddy of them all. And here, contrary to most of Reddit or the West, I think China has the upper hand.

Basically there are two reasons for this:

- China has way more manufacturing capability than the US

- China is way more united and will have higher morale than the US

The Arsenal of Autocracy

In WWII, the Allies won because the United States was the Arsenal of Democracy. It had half the world's manufacturing capability at the time, and it supplied the Allies, especially the Soviets, with everything from ammo to jeeps to canned food. But now, to quote Noah Smith, the Arsenal of Democracy is gone. In is place is China, the world's factory and now the Arsenal of Autocracy. It manufactures more than the next 9 countries combined, including 3 times the US.

We know China utterly dominates in civilian manufacturing and infrastructure (which is part of the reason I made a previous CMV), but did you know that it extends to the military sector as well? China is rapidly expanding its military, from its navy to its missile and nuclear arsenals. It has a shipbuilding capacity 230 times that of the US, and completely dominates the global drone industry, which is critical to future wars like we've seen in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the US military, despite a bloated budget (which might not be that much bigger than China's), is falling behind:

- Catch Up: China Is Getting New Weapons [5 to 6 Times] Faster Than the U.S.

- The U.S. Navy is Falling Behind China, and The Pentagon Knows It

- The U.S. Defense Industrial Base Is Not Prepared for a Possible Conflict with China

Sure, the US military is still technologically advanced, with its F-35s and aircraft carriers being marvels of engineering. But will quality matter against quantity? I fear that the US is now in the same position as Nazi Germany, which had all sorts of advanced weapons like the Tiger tank, but was outnumbered in terms of materiel versus the Allies. Will the US's tech superiority matter when China makes 10 J-20s for every F-35, or when hundreds of Dongfeng missiles whittle down America's aircraft carriers one by one?

Chinese Nationalists: the new Taliban

I think it's a given that China will be more united and willing to sacrifice compared to the US. Just look at how differently Chinese people responded to COVID-19 versus Americans. That was against a faceless virus; a war will push those differences to the extreme.

This will be especially apparent if the war is over Taiwan. Chinese people for decades have been taught that Taiwan is an inviolable part of China, only separated thanks to the evil West and its imperialist machinations. Now, in a war to get Taiwan back? Lots of Chinese people will be more than willing to sign up for that, whether by literally going to the front lines or by making the necessary sacrifices at home. Which given my experience with Chinese nationalists both online and offline, that's 100% believable.

Meanwhile most Americans are tired of playing world police (not to mention many Americans, on both the left and the right, outright hate their country). Imagine American soldiers being deployed far from home, for a cause most feel little connection to, against Chinese soldiers with morale levels of ISIS or the Taliban. Meanwhile back in America, protests over both the war and the ensuing economic collapse will bring the nation to its knees. It will be like Vietnam or Afghanistan all over again.

In fact, we're seeing something similar with Russia's war in Ukraine right now. Pundits have predicted that Russians will turn against the war any day now, but instead Russians support Putin and his war more than ever. Not only is Russia fighting the evil West, in their eyes, but they are correcting a historical injustice by bringing Ukraine back into the Russian fold. All while Western support for Ukraine is wavering more and more. No wonder Russia is slowly but surely winning.

Conclusion

So yeah, doubt the US has a real chance to actually win against China. Granted I think a Chinese victory will be a Pyrrhic one, after years of grinding out a war of attrition and sending men to the meat grinder. But it would be a victory nonetheless, one that cements China's rise as the leader of a new world order.